The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Beatriz Machado; Liliana Antunes; Constantino Caetano; João F. Pereira; Baltazar Nunes; Paula Patrício; M. Luísa Morgado; Beatriz Machado; Liliana Antunes; Constantino Caetano; João F. Pereira; Baltazar Nunes; Paula Patrício; M. Luísa Morgado

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022043

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 1: 936-952. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022043

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Research article Special Issues

The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

1.
School of Science and Technology, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, Vila Real 5001-801, Portugal
2.
Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon 1649-016, Portugal
3.
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa
4.
Center for Mathematics and Applications (CMA) and Department of Mathematics, NOVA School of Science and Technology, FCT NOVA, Quinta da Torre, Caparica 2829-516, Portugal
5.
Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal

Academic Editor: Cristiana J. Silva

Received: 31 August 2021 Accepted: 09 November 2021 Published: 22 November 2021

In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.
- COVID-19,
- vaccination,
- epidemiology,
- SEIR model
Citation: Beatriz Machado, Liliana Antunes, Constantino Caetano, João F. Pereira, Baltazar Nunes, Paula Patrício, M. Luísa Morgado. The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(1): 936-952. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022043

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Abstract

In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.

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