New grey forecasting model with its application and computer code

Halis Bilgil; Halis Bilgil

doi:10.3934/math.2021091

AIMS Mathematics

2021, Volume 6, Issue 2: 1497-1514. doi: 10.3934/math.2021091

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Research article

New grey forecasting model with its application and computer code

Halis Bilgil ^,

Department of Mathematics, Aksaray University, Aksaray 68100, Turkey

Received: 24 September 2020 Accepted: 15 November 2020 Published: 20 November 2020
MSC : 60G25, 34B60, 68U01

Grey theory is an approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. In some cases, a grey forecasting model may yield unacceptable forecasting errors. In this work, a new exponential grey prediction model, which is called as EXGM (1, 1), is proposed. By using this model, new cases, deaths and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Turkey is forecast. Numerical results show that EXGM (1, 1) is a model that performs more accurately than the comparison models.
- grey systems,
- COVID-19 predictions,
- grey forecasting model,
- least squares method
Citation: Halis Bilgil. New grey forecasting model with its application and computer code[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2021, 6(2): 1497-1514. doi: 10.3934/math.2021091

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Abstract

Grey theory is an approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. In some cases, a grey forecasting model may yield unacceptable forecasting errors. In this work, a new exponential grey prediction model, which is called as EXGM (1, 1), is proposed. By using this model, new cases, deaths and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Turkey is forecast. Numerical results show that EXGM (1, 1) is a model that performs more accurately than the comparison models.

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