Search Advanced

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2013, Volume 10, Issue 4: 1159-1171. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1159
Previous Article Next Article

Modelling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China

  • 1.
    Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051
  • 2.
    Department of Mathematics, North University of China, School of Mechatronic Engineering, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051
  • Received: 01 March 2012 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 01 June 2013

  • MSC : Primary: 34C25, 92D30; Secondary: 34K25.

  • Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the majorpublic-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.

    Citation: Yangjun Ma, Maoxing Liu, Qiang Hou, Jinqing Zhao. Modelling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(4): 1159-1171. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1159

    Related Papers:

  • Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the majorpublic-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.


    加载中
    [1] Ecol. Monogr., 72 (2002), 169-184.
    [2] J. Math. Biol., 53 (2006), 421-436.
    [3] Bull. Math. Biol., 69 (2007), 1067-1091.
    [4] http://www.cdc.gov/hand-foot-mouth/about/index.html.
    [5] http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6112a5.htm.
    [6] Emerg. Infect. Dis., 7 (2001), 369-374.
    [7] Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 101 (2004), 16915-16916.
    [8] Theory. Pop. Biol., 18 (1980), 204-243.
    [9] Nonlinear. Dyn., 64 (2011), 89-95.
    [10] PLoS ONE., 6 (2011), e25287.
    [11] Am. J. Epidemiol., 98 (1973), 453-468.
    [12] Math. Biosci. Eng., 3 (2006), 161-172.
    [13] Math. Biosci. Eng., 2 (2005), 591-611.
    [14] Science Press, London, 2004.
    [15] Springer-Verlag, New York, 2000.
    [16] J. Math. Biol., 30 (1992), 473-491.
    [17] J. Math. Biol., 18 (1983), 233-253.
    [18] http://www.stats-sd.gov.cn/2007/tjsj/tjsj.asp?lbbm=1.
    [19] in "Second Asia International Conference on Modelling and Simulation," Conference Publications, (2008), 947-952.
    [20] Jpn. J. Infect. Dis., 56 (2003), 48-53.
    [21] http://www.wpro.who.int/emerging_diseases/HFMD/en/index.html.
    [22] Arch. Virol., 156 (2011), 945-953.
    [23] Math. Biosci., 172 (2001), 95-113.
    [24] Math. Biosci., 209 (2007), 222-239.
    [25] J. Biol. Dyn., 3 (2008), 699-717.
    [26] Biomed. Environ. Sci., 4 (2011), 349-356.
    [27] J. Clin. Virol., 44 (2009), 262-267.
    [28] Bull. Math. Biol., 74 (2012), 1226-1251.
    [29] J. Math. Anal. Appl., 325 (2007), 496-516.
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2013 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
3.9

Metrics

Article views(3259) PDF downloads(675) Cited by(34)

Preview PDF
Download XML
Export Citation
Article outline

Other Articles By Authors

Related pages

Tools

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog