Research article

A comparative study of SIR Model, Linear Regression, Logistic Function and ARIMA Model for forecasting COVID-19 cases

  • Received: 12 July 2021 Accepted: 29 July 2021 Published: 26 August 2021
  • Starting February 2020, COVID-19 was confirmed in 11,946 people worldwide, with a mortality rate of almost 2%. A significant number of epidemic diseases consisting of human Coronavirus display patterns. In this study, with the benefit of data analytic, we develop regression models and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion to compare the performance of models to predict the number of cases. First, we implement a good understanding of data and perform Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA). Then, we derive parameters of the model from the available data corresponding to the top 4 regions based on the history of infections and the most infected people as of the end of August 2020. Then models are compared, and we recommend further research.

    Citation: Saina Abolmaali, Samira Shirzaei. A comparative study of SIR Model, Linear Regression, Logistic Function and ARIMA Model for forecasting COVID-19 cases[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2021, 8(4): 598-613. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2021048

    Related Papers:

  • Starting February 2020, COVID-19 was confirmed in 11,946 people worldwide, with a mortality rate of almost 2%. A significant number of epidemic diseases consisting of human Coronavirus display patterns. In this study, with the benefit of data analytic, we develop regression models and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion to compare the performance of models to predict the number of cases. First, we implement a good understanding of data and perform Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA). Then, we derive parameters of the model from the available data corresponding to the top 4 regions based on the history of infections and the most infected people as of the end of August 2020. Then models are compared, and we recommend further research.



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    Acknowledgments



    The authors did not receive support from any organization for this study.

    Conflict of interest



    The authors report no conflict of interest.

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