Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun

Kun Wang; Peng Wang; Zhengang Jiang; Lu Wang; Linhua Zhou; Dequan Qi; Weishi Yin; Pinchao Meng; Kun Wang; Peng Wang; Zhengang Jiang; Lu Wang; Linhua Zhou; Dequan Qi; Weishi Yin; Pinchao Meng

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023960

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 12: 21692-21716. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023960

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Research article

Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun

1.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China
2.
Jilin Provincial Joint Key Labortory of Big Data Science and Engineering, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China

Received: 21 August 2023 Revised: 11 November 2023 Accepted: 12 November 2023 Published: 08 December 2023

Due to its immune evasion capability, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization. The spread of Omicron in Changchun (i.e., the capital of Jilin province in northeast of China) during the spring of 2022 was successfully curbed under the strategy of a dynamic Zero-COVID policy. To evaluate the impact of immune evasion on vaccination and other measures, and to understand how the dynamic Zero-COVID measure stopped the epidemics in Changchun, we establish a compartmental model over different stages and parameterized the model with actual reported data. The model simulation firstly shows a reasonably good fit between our model prediction and the data. Second, we estimate the testing rate in the early stage of the outbreak to reveal the real infection size. Third, numerical simulations show that the coverage of vaccine immunization in Changchun and the regular nucleic acid testing could not stop the epidemic, while the 'non-pharmaceutical' intervention measures utilized in the dynamic Zero-COVID policy could play significant roles in the containment of Omicron. Based on the parameterized model, numerical analysis demonstrates that if one wants to achieve epidemic control by fully utilizing the effect of 'dynamic Zero-COVID' measures, therefore social activities are restricted to the minimum level, and then the economic development may come to a halt. The insight analysis in this work could provide reference for infectious disease prevention and control measures in the future.
- dynamic modeling,
- data-driven,
- Omicron,
- immune evasion,
- dynamic Zero-COVID policy
Citation: Kun Wang, Peng Wang, Zhengang Jiang, Lu Wang, Linhua Zhou, Dequan Qi, Weishi Yin, Pinchao Meng. Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(12): 21692-21716. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023960

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Abstract

Due to its immune evasion capability, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization. The spread of Omicron in Changchun (i.e., the capital of Jilin province in northeast of China) during the spring of 2022 was successfully curbed under the strategy of a dynamic Zero-COVID policy. To evaluate the impact of immune evasion on vaccination and other measures, and to understand how the dynamic Zero-COVID measure stopped the epidemics in Changchun, we establish a compartmental model over different stages and parameterized the model with actual reported data. The model simulation firstly shows a reasonably good fit between our model prediction and the data. Second, we estimate the testing rate in the early stage of the outbreak to reveal the real infection size. Third, numerical simulations show that the coverage of vaccine immunization in Changchun and the regular nucleic acid testing could not stop the epidemic, while the 'non-pharmaceutical' intervention measures utilized in the dynamic Zero-COVID policy could play significant roles in the containment of Omicron. Based on the parameterized model, numerical analysis demonstrates that if one wants to achieve epidemic control by fully utilizing the effect of 'dynamic Zero-COVID' measures, therefore social activities are restricted to the minimum level, and then the economic development may come to a halt. The insight analysis in this work could provide reference for infectious disease prevention and control measures in the future.

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