Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study

Ayako Suzuki; Hiroshi Nishiura; Ayako Suzuki; Hiroshi Nishiura

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022280

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 6: 5998-6012. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022280

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Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study

Ayako Suzuki ,
Hiroshi Nishiura ^,

School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

Academic Editor: Daihai He

Received: 10 January 2022 Revised: 27 March 2022 Accepted: 28 March 2022 Published: 11 April 2022

Public health and social measures (PHSMs) targeting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have potentially affected the epidemiological dynamics of endemic infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the impact of PHSMs for COVID-19, with a particular focus on varicella dynamics in Japan. We adopted the susceptible-infectious-recovered type of mathematical model to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of varicella from Jan. 2010 to Sep. 2021. We analyzed epidemiological and demographic data and estimated the within-year and multi-year component of the force of infection and the biases associated with reporting and ascertainment in three periods: pre-vaccination (Jan. 2010–Dec. 2014), pre-pandemic vaccination (Jan. 2015–Mar. 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Apr. 2020–Sep. 2021). By using the estimated parameter values, we reconstructed and predicted the varicella dynamics from 2010 to 2027. Although the varicella incidence dropped drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic, the change in susceptible dynamics was minimal; the number of susceptible individuals was almost stable. Our prediction showed that the risk of a major outbreak in the post-pandemic era may be relatively small. However, uncertainties, including age-related susceptibility and travel-related cases, exist and careful monitoring would be required to prepare for future varicella outbreaks.
- chickenpox,
- SARS-CoV-2,
- mathematical model,
- COVID-19 pandemic,
- immunization
Citation: Ayako Suzuki, Hiroshi Nishiura. Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(6): 5998-6012. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022280

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Abstract

Public health and social measures (PHSMs) targeting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have potentially affected the epidemiological dynamics of endemic infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the impact of PHSMs for COVID-19, with a particular focus on varicella dynamics in Japan. We adopted the susceptible-infectious-recovered type of mathematical model to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of varicella from Jan. 2010 to Sep. 2021. We analyzed epidemiological and demographic data and estimated the within-year and multi-year component of the force of infection and the biases associated with reporting and ascertainment in three periods: pre-vaccination (Jan. 2010–Dec. 2014), pre-pandemic vaccination (Jan. 2015–Mar. 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Apr. 2020–Sep. 2021). By using the estimated parameter values, we reconstructed and predicted the varicella dynamics from 2010 to 2027. Although the varicella incidence dropped drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic, the change in susceptible dynamics was minimal; the number of susceptible individuals was almost stable. Our prediction showed that the risk of a major outbreak in the post-pandemic era may be relatively small. However, uncertainties, including age-related susceptibility and travel-related cases, exist and careful monitoring would be required to prepare for future varicella outbreaks.

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