Models to assess imported cases on the rebound of COVID-19 and design a long-term border control strategy in Heilongjiang Province, China

Xianghong Zhang; Yunna Song; Sanyi Tang; Haifeng Xue; Wanchun Chen; Lingling Qin; Shoushi Jia; Ying Shen; Shusen Zhao; Huaiping Zhu; Xianghong Zhang; Yunna Song; Sanyi Tang; Haifeng Xue; Wanchun Chen; Lingling Qin; Shoushi Jia; Ying Shen; Shusen Zhao; Huaiping Zhu

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022001

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 1: 1-33. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022001

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Research article Special Issues

Models to assess imported cases on the rebound of COVID-19 and design a long-term border control strategy in Heilongjiang Province, China

1.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China
2.
Basic Medicine School, Qiqihar Medical University, Qiqihar, 161006, China
3.
LAMPS, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada
4.
School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710062, China
5.
Qiqihar Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Qiqihar, 161005, China
6.
Qiqihar Seventh Hospital, Qiqihar, 161006, China

Received: 13 July 2021 Accepted: 18 October 2021 Published: 08 November 2021

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China in December 2019, it has spread quickly and become a global pandemic. While the epidemic has been contained well in China due to unprecedented public health interventions, it is still raging or not yet been restrained in some neighboring countries. Chinese government adopted a strict policy of immigration diversion in major entry ports, and it makes Suifenhe port in Heilongjiang Province undertook more importing population. It is essential to understand how imported cases and other key factors of screening affect the epidemic rebound and its mitigation in Heilongjiang Province. Thus we proposed a time switching dynamical system to explore and mimic the disease transmission in three time stages considering importation and control. Cross validation of parameter estimations was carried out to improve the credibility of estimations by fitting the model with eight time series of cumulative numbers simultaneous. Simulation of the dynamics shows that illegal imported cases and imperfect protection in hospitals are the main reasons for the second epidemic wave, the actual border control intensities in the province are relatively effective in early stage. However, a long-term border closure may cause a paradox phenomenon such that it is much harder to restrain the epidemic. Hence it is essential to design an effective border reopening strategy for long-term border control by balancing the limited resources on hotel rooms for quarantine and hospital beds. Our results can be helpful for public health to design border control strategies to suppress COVID-19 transmission.
- COVID-19,
- imported cases,
- time switching system,
- paradox phenomenon,
- limited resources,
- long-term border control
Citation: Xianghong Zhang, Yunna Song, Sanyi Tang, Haifeng Xue, Wanchun Chen, Lingling Qin, Shoushi Jia, Ying Shen, Shusen Zhao, Huaiping Zhu. Models to assess imported cases on the rebound of COVID-19 and design a long-term border control strategy in Heilongjiang Province, China[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(1): 1-33. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022001

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Abstract

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China in December 2019, it has spread quickly and become a global pandemic. While the epidemic has been contained well in China due to unprecedented public health interventions, it is still raging or not yet been restrained in some neighboring countries. Chinese government adopted a strict policy of immigration diversion in major entry ports, and it makes Suifenhe port in Heilongjiang Province undertook more importing population. It is essential to understand how imported cases and other key factors of screening affect the epidemic rebound and its mitigation in Heilongjiang Province. Thus we proposed a time switching dynamical system to explore and mimic the disease transmission in three time stages considering importation and control. Cross validation of parameter estimations was carried out to improve the credibility of estimations by fitting the model with eight time series of cumulative numbers simultaneous. Simulation of the dynamics shows that illegal imported cases and imperfect protection in hospitals are the main reasons for the second epidemic wave, the actual border control intensities in the province are relatively effective in early stage. However, a long-term border closure may cause a paradox phenomenon such that it is much harder to restrain the epidemic. Hence it is essential to design an effective border reopening strategy for long-term border control by balancing the limited resources on hotel rooms for quarantine and hospital beds. Our results can be helpful for public health to design border control strategies to suppress COVID-19 transmission.

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