Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach

Fabio Sanchez; Luis A. Barboza; Paola Vásquez; Fabio Sanchez; Luis A. Barboza; Paola Vásquez

doi:10.3934/mbe.2019136

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2019, Volume 16, Issue 4: 2738-2755. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019136

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Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach

1.
CIMPA-Escuela de Matemática, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
2.
Escuela de Salud Pública, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica

Received: 01 January 2019 Accepted: 17 March 2019 Published: 28 March 2019

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the basic reproductive number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters
- Zika virus,
- basic reproductive number,
- Approximate Bayesian Computation,
- public health,
- transmission dynamics,
- epidemic models,
- vector-borne diseases
Citation: Fabio Sanchez, Luis A. Barboza, Paola Vásquez. Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 16(4): 2738-2755. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019136

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Abstract

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the basic reproductive number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters

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