Citation: Vladimir Cermak, Louise Bodri, Jan Safanda, Milan Kresl, Petr Dedecek. Variability trends in the daily air temperatures seriesRunning head: Variability trends prague[J]. AIMS Environmental Science, 2019, 6(3): 167-185. doi: 10.3934/environsci.2019.3.167
[1] | Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, et al. (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48. |
[2] | Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M (2011) Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Climatic Change 107: 615–624. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y |
[3] | Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, et al. (2013) Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013. The physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, et al Eds., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1029–1136. |
[4] | Knutson TR, Zeng F, Wittenberg AT (2013) Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth-century simulations. J Climate 26: 8709–8743. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1 |
[5] | Fyfe JC, Gillet NP, Thompson DWJ (2010) Comparing variability and trends in observed and modeled global mean surface temperature. Geophys Res Lett 37. |
[6] | Thompson DWJ, Barnes EA, Deser C, et al. (2015). Quantifying the role of internal climatic variability in future climate trends. J Climate 28: 6443–6456. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1 |
[7] | Evrendilek F (2016) Insights on the global climatic changes and their discernible impacts. J Earth Sci Climatic Change 7: e113. |
[8] | Thornton PK, Ericksen PJ, Herrero M, et al. (2014) Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review. Glob Change Biol 20: 3313–3328. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12581 |
[9] | Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, et al. (2007) Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning MA, et al. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. |
[10] | Knutson TR,, Ploshay JJ (2016) Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index. Climatic Change 138: 25–39. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1708-z |
[11] | Angelil O, Stone D, Wehner M (2017) An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events. J Climate, 30: 5–16. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0077.1 |
[12] | Van Oldenborgh GJS, Drijfhout A, van Ulden R, et al. (2009) Western Europe is warming much faster than expected, Climate of the Past 5:1–12. |
[13] | Fischer EM, Rajczak J, Schär C (2012) Changes in European summer temperature variability revisited. Geophys Res Lett 39. |
[14] | Lépi E, Pasanen L (2017) Observed regional climate variability during the last 50 years in Reindeer Herding cooperatives in Finnish Fell Lapland, Climate 5: 81. |
[15] | Xu Z, Tang Y, Connor T, et al. (2017) Climate variability and trends at a national scale. Sci Rep 7: 3258. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-03297-5 |
[16] | Huntingford C, Jones PD, Livina VN, et al. (2013) No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns. Nature 500: 327–30. doi: 10.1038/nature12310 |
[17] | Michaels PJ, Balling Jr RC, Vose RS, et al. (1998) Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements. Clim Res 10, 27–33. |
[18] | Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedi R (2012) Perception of climate change. Proc.National Acad Sci USA 109; E2415–E2423. |
[19] | Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A (1999) CLIVAR/GSOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes. Workshop summary. Clim Change, 42: 3–7. doi: 10.1023/A:1005491526870 |
[20] | Bodri L, Cermak V (2003) High frequency variability in recent climate and North Atlantic oscillation. Theor.Appl.Climatol, 74: 33–40. doi: 10.1007/s00704-002-0703-7 |
[21] | Bodri L, Cermak V, Kresl M (2005) Trends in precipitation variability: Prague (the Czech Republic). Climatic Change, 72: 151–170. doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-5370-0 |
[22] | Alexander L, Perkins S (2013) Debate heating up over changes in climate variability. Environ Res Lett, 8: 041001. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/041001 |
[23] | Cermak V, Safanda J, Kresl M, et al. (2000) Recent climate warming: surface air temperature series and geothermal evidence. Studia geoph et geod 44: 430–441. doi: 10.1023/A:1022116721903 |
[24] | Cermak V, Bodri L, Safanda J, et al. (2014) Ground-air temperature tracking and multi-years cycles in the subsurface temperature time series at geothermal climate-change observatory. Stud Geoph Geod 58: 403–424. doi: 10.1007/s11200-013-0356-2 |
[25] | Cermak V, Bodri L, Dedecek P, et al. (2016) Eleven years of ground-air temperature tracking over different land cover types. Int J Climatol. |
[26] | Fiedler M, Magr J (2001) Available from: https://www.fiedler-magr.cz. |
[27] | Czech hydrometeorological institute, Data available from: http://portal.chmi.cz/historicka- data/pocasi/praha-klementinum. |
[28] | Jones PD, Lister DD, Osborn TJ, et al. (2012) Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and update to 2010. J Geophys Res: Atmospheres 117. |
[29] | Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, et al. (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3.10 Datase. Int J Climatol 34: 623–642. doi: 10.1002/joc.3711 |
[30] | Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, et al. (2007) Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Chapter 3 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (Eds), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 987. |
[31] | Beranova R, Huth R (2005) Long-term changes in the heat island of Prague under different synoptic conditions. Theoret Applied Climatology 82: 113–118. doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0115-y |
[32] | Brazdil R, Budikova M (1999) An urban bias in air temperature fluctuation at the Klementinum, Prague, the Czech Republic. Atmos Enviro 33: 4211–4217. doi: 10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00163-6 |
[33] | Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, et al. (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111. |
[34] | Available from: http://climatechange.lta.org/climate-impacts/air-temperatures/. |
[35] | Zhou C, Wang K (2016) Coldest temperature extreme monotonically increased and hottest extreme oscillated over northern Hemisphere Land during last 114 years. Sci Rep 6: 25721. doi: 10.1038/srep25721 |
[36] | Dong BW, Sutton RT, Shaffrey L (2017) Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Clim Dynam 48. |
[37] | Stone DA, Weaver AJ (2003) Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth and twenty-first century simulation of CCCma-coupled model. Clim Dynam 20: 435–445. doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0288-y |
[38] | Davy R, Esau I, Chernokulsky A, et al. (2017) Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming. Int J Climatol 37: 79-93. doi: 10.1002/joc.4688 |
[39] | Del Rio S, Fraile R, Herrero L, et al. (2007) Analysis of recent trends in mean maximum and minimum temperatures in a region of the NW of Spain (Castilla y Leon). Theor Appl Climatol 90: 1–12. doi: 10.1007/s00704-006-0278-9 |
[40] | Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, et al. (2013) Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al., (Eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. |
[41] | Wild M, Ohmura A, Makowski K (2007) Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming, Geophys Res Lett 34: L04702. |
[42] | Makowski K, Wild M, Ohmura A (2008) Diurnal temperature range over Europe between 1950 and 2005. Atmos Chem Phys 8: 6483–6498. doi: 10.5194/acp-8-6483-2008 |
[43] | McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A, Holbrook N, et al. (1999) Assessing simulations of daily temperatures and precipitation variability with global climate models for present and enhanced greenhouse climates. Int J Climatol 19: 1–26. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199901)19:1<1::AID-JOC348>3.0.CO;2-T |
[44] | Stouffer RJ, Wetherald RT (2007) Changes of variability in response to increasing Greenhouse Gases. Part I: Temperature. J Climate 20: 5455–5467. |
[45] | Christidis N, Jones GS, Stott PA (2015) Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave. Nature Clim Change 5: 46–50. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2468 |
[46] | Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen M R (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432: 610–614. doi: 10.1038/nature03089 |
[47] | Robine JM, Cheung SL, Le Roy S, et al. (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol 331(2): 171–178. |
[48] | Available from: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/summer-heat-wave-arrives-europe. |
[49] | Muthers S, Laschewski G, Matzarakis A (2017) The summers 2003 and 2015 in south-west Germany: Heat waves and heat-related mortality in the context of climate change. Atmosphere 8: 224–236. doi: 10.3390/atmos8110224 |
[50] | Brönnimann S, Luterbacher J, Ewen T, et al. (2008) Climate variability and extremes during the past 100 years (Advances in Global Change Research). Springer (London, Dordrecht). |
[51] | Nicholls N, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, et al. (1996) Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton J T, Meiro Filho L G, Callendar B A, et al. (Eds.), Climate change 1995, The science of climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 133–192. |
[52] | World Climate Research Program (WCRP: www clivar.org). |
[53] | Klein Tank AMG, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. Climate data and monitoring. |
[54] | Available from: https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/european-heat-extremes |
[55] | Available from: https://atmos.washington.edu/~salathe/AR4_Climate_Models/ |
[56] | Simolo C, Brunetti M, Maugeri M, et al. (2011) Evolution of extreme temperatures in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 38: 6. |
[57] | Twardosz R, Kossowska-Cezak U, Pelech S (2016) Extremely cold winter months in Europe (1951–2010). Acta Geophys 64(6): 2609–2629. |
[58] | Twardosz R, Kossowska-Cezak U (2016) Exceptionally cold and mild winters in Europe (1951–2010). Theor Appl Climatol 125: 399–411. doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1524-9 |
[59] | Russo S, Sillmann J, Fischer M (2015) Top ten European heat waves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades. Environ Res Lett 10: 124003. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003 |
[60] | Spinoni J, Lakatos M, Szentimrey T, et al. (2015) Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010. Int J Climatol 35: 4197–4209. doi: 10.1002/joc.4279 |
[61] | Capozzi V, Budillon G (2017) Detection of heat and cold waves in Montevergine time series (1884–2015), Adv Geosci, 44: 35–51. |
[62] | Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. J Geophys Res, Atmosphere, 113: D05115. |
[63] | Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, et al. (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J Geophys Res, Atmosphere, 118: 1716–1733. |
[64] | Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, et al. (2013) Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res, Atmospheres, 118: 2098–2118. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50150 |