Excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths in Italy: A peak comparison study

Marco Roccetti; Marco Roccetti

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023304

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 4: 7042-7055. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023304

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Excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths in Italy: A peak comparison study

Marco Roccetti ^,

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

Academic Editor: Pierre Magal

Received: 24 December 2022 Revised: 05 February 2023 Accepted: 06 February 2023 Published: 09 February 2023

During a sanitary crisis, excess mortality measures the number of all-cause deaths, beyond what we would have expected if that crisis had not occurred. The high number of COVID-19 deaths started a debate in Italy with two opposite positions: those convinced that COVID-19 deaths were not by default excess deaths, because many COVID-19 deaths were not correctly registered, with most being attributable to other causes and to the overall crisis conditions; and those who presented the opposite hypothesis. We analyzed the curve of the all-cause excess mortality, during the period of January 5, 2020–October 31, 2022, compared to the curve of the daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, investigating the association between excess mortality and the recurrence of COVID-19 waves in Italy. We compared the two curves looking for the corresponding highest peaks, and we found that 5 out of the 6 highest peaks (83.3%) of the excess mortality curve have occurred, on average, just a week before the concomitant COVID-19 waves hit their highest peaks of daily deaths (Mean 6.4 days; SD 2.4 days). This temporal correspondence between the moments when the excess mortality peaked and the highest peaks of the COVID-19 deaths, provides further evidence in favor of a positive correlation between COVID-19 deaths and all-cause excess mortality.
- COVID-19,
- pandemic,
- Italy,
- daily confirmed deaths,
- all-cause excess mortality,
- peak comparison,
- public health
Citation: Marco Roccetti. Excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths in Italy: A peak comparison study[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(4): 7042-7055. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023304

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Abstract

During a sanitary crisis, excess mortality measures the number of all-cause deaths, beyond what we would have expected if that crisis had not occurred. The high number of COVID-19 deaths started a debate in Italy with two opposite positions: those convinced that COVID-19 deaths were not by default excess deaths, because many COVID-19 deaths were not correctly registered, with most being attributable to other causes and to the overall crisis conditions; and those who presented the opposite hypothesis. We analyzed the curve of the all-cause excess mortality, during the period of January 5, 2020–October 31, 2022, compared to the curve of the daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, investigating the association between excess mortality and the recurrence of COVID-19 waves in Italy. We compared the two curves looking for the corresponding highest peaks, and we found that 5 out of the 6 highest peaks (83.3%) of the excess mortality curve have occurred, on average, just a week before the concomitant COVID-19 waves hit their highest peaks of daily deaths (Mean 6.4 days; SD 2.4 days). This temporal correspondence between the moments when the excess mortality peaked and the highest peaks of the COVID-19 deaths, provides further evidence in favor of a positive correlation between COVID-19 deaths and all-cause excess mortality.

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