Mathematical modeling of SARS-nCoV-2 virus in Tamil Nadu, South India

Avinash Shankaranarayanan; Hsiu-Chuan Wei; Avinash Shankaranarayanan; Hsiu-Chuan Wei

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022527

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 11: 11324-11344. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022527

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Research article

Mathematical modeling of SARS-nCoV-2 virus in Tamil Nadu, South India

Avinash Shankaranarayanan ¹,
Hsiu-Chuan Wei ^{2
,
,}

1.
International School of Technology Management, Feng Chia University, 100 Wen Hua Road, Xitun District, Taichung 40724, Taiwan
2.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Feng Chia University, Taichung 40724, Taiwan

Academic Editor: Shigui Ruan

Received: 02 May 2022 Revised: 26 July 2022 Accepted: 02 August 2022 Published: 09 August 2022

The purpose of this paper is to build a mathematical model for the study of the roles of lock-down, social distancing, vaccination, detection efficiency, and health care capacity planning of the COVID-19 pandemic taking into account the demographic topology of the State of Tamil Nadu, India. Two mathematical models are proposed for the evolution of the first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The model for the first wave considers lock-down orders, social distancing measures, and detection efficiency. The model for the second wave considers more sub-populations and incorporates two more elements, vaccination and health care capacity. Daily reported data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic are used to determine the parameter values. The dynamics produced by the mathematical model closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in the State of Tamil Nadu. Numerical simulation shows that the lock-down effect is limited. Social distancing implementation and detection of positive cases are relatively ineffective compared with other big cities. Shortage of health care resources is one of the factors responsible for rapidly spreading in the second wave in Tamil Nadu.
- COVID-19,
- mathematical modeling,
- numerical simulation,
- epidemic
Citation: Avinash Shankaranarayanan, Hsiu-Chuan Wei. Mathematical modeling of SARS-nCoV-2 virus in Tamil Nadu, South India[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(11): 11324-11344. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022527

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to build a mathematical model for the study of the roles of lock-down, social distancing, vaccination, detection efficiency, and health care capacity planning of the COVID-19 pandemic taking into account the demographic topology of the State of Tamil Nadu, India. Two mathematical models are proposed for the evolution of the first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The model for the first wave considers lock-down orders, social distancing measures, and detection efficiency. The model for the second wave considers more sub-populations and incorporates two more elements, vaccination and health care capacity. Daily reported data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic are used to determine the parameter values. The dynamics produced by the mathematical model closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in the State of Tamil Nadu. Numerical simulation shows that the lock-down effect is limited. Social distancing implementation and detection of positive cases are relatively ineffective compared with other big cities. Shortage of health care resources is one of the factors responsible for rapidly spreading in the second wave in Tamil Nadu.

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