Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM

  • Received: 01 June 2012 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 01 April 2013
  • MSC : Primary: 92B05; Secondary: 90B15.

  • Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the UnitedState over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM,to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasionof the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-bornepathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initialpopulation of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a newpopulation. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends onthree parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks,the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and theprobability that a tick infects the shorter-lived hosts. These resultsindicate that the transmission rates to hosts in thenewly established area can be used to predict the potential risk ofdisease to humans.

    Citation: Holly Gaff, Robyn Nadolny. Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(3): 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

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  • Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the UnitedState over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM,to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasionof the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-bornepathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initialpopulation of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a newpopulation. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends onthree parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks,the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and theprobability that a tick infects the shorter-lived hosts. These resultsindicate that the transmission rates to hosts in thenewly established area can be used to predict the potential risk ofdisease to humans.


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