Modeling the potential impact of rectal microbicides to reduce HIV transmission in bathhouses
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1.
Department of Biomathematics, David Ge®en School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90024
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2.
Center for HIV and Digestive Diseases, Division of Digestive Diseases, The UCLA AIDS Institute, David Ge®en School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90020
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3.
Department of Mathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90020
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4.
Department of Biomathematics and Department of Biostatistics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90020
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5.
Center for HIV and Digestive Diseases, Division of Digestive Diseases, The UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90020
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6.
Department of Biomathematics & the UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90024
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Received:
01 March 2005
Accepted:
29 June 2018
Published:
01 May 2006
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MSC :
92D30.
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We evaluate the potential impact of rectal microbicides for reducing HIV
transmission in bathhouses. A new mathematical model describing HIV transmission
dynamics among men who have sex with men (MSM) in bathhouses is constructed and analyzed.
The model incorporates key features affecting transmission, including sexual role
behavior (insertive and receptive anal intercourse acts), biological transmissibility
of HIV, frequency and efficacy of condom usage, and, most pertinently, frequency and
efficacy of rectal microbicide usage. To evaluate the potential impact of rectal
microbicide usage, we quantify the effect of rectal microbicides (ranging in efficacy
from 10% to 90%) on reducing the number of HIV infections in the bathhouse.
We conduct uncertainty analyses to assess the effect of variability in both biological
and behavioral parameters. We find that even moderately effective rectal
microbicides (if used in 10% to 50% of the sex acts) would substantially reduce
transmission in bathhouses. For example, a 50% effective rectal microbicide (used
in 50% of sex acts) would reduce the number of secondary infections by almost 13% at
disease invasion. Our modeling analyses show that even moderately effective rectal
microbicides could be very effective prevention tools for reducing transmission in
bathhouses and also potentially limit the spread of HIV in the community.
Citation: Romulus Breban, Ian McGowan, Chad Topaz, Elissa J. Schwartz, Peter Anton, Sally Blower. Modeling the potential impact of rectal microbicides to reduce HIV transmission in bathhouses[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2006, 3(3): 459-466. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2006.3.459
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Abstract
We evaluate the potential impact of rectal microbicides for reducing HIV
transmission in bathhouses. A new mathematical model describing HIV transmission
dynamics among men who have sex with men (MSM) in bathhouses is constructed and analyzed.
The model incorporates key features affecting transmission, including sexual role
behavior (insertive and receptive anal intercourse acts), biological transmissibility
of HIV, frequency and efficacy of condom usage, and, most pertinently, frequency and
efficacy of rectal microbicide usage. To evaluate the potential impact of rectal
microbicide usage, we quantify the effect of rectal microbicides (ranging in efficacy
from 10% to 90%) on reducing the number of HIV infections in the bathhouse.
We conduct uncertainty analyses to assess the effect of variability in both biological
and behavioral parameters. We find that even moderately effective rectal
microbicides (if used in 10% to 50% of the sex acts) would substantially reduce
transmission in bathhouses. For example, a 50% effective rectal microbicide (used
in 50% of sex acts) would reduce the number of secondary infections by almost 13% at
disease invasion. Our modeling analyses show that even moderately effective rectal
microbicides could be very effective prevention tools for reducing transmission in
bathhouses and also potentially limit the spread of HIV in the community.
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