Defining a new method to set certainty factors to improve power systems prognosis with fuzzy petri nets

R. S. Solaiman; T. G. Kherbek; A. S. Ahmad; R. S. Solaiman; T. G. Kherbek; A. S. Ahmad

doi:10.3934/energy.2020.4.686

AIMS Energy

2020, Volume 8, Issue 4: 686-700. doi: 10.3934/energy.2020.4.686

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Research article Special Issues

Defining a new method to set certainty factors to improve power systems prognosis with fuzzy petri nets

1.
Department of Electrical Power Engineering, Tishreen University, Lattakia, Syria
2.
Department of Medical Engineering, Al Andalus University, Tartus, Syria

Received: 04 May 2020 Accepted: 28 July 2020 Published: 11 August 2020

In power systems, faults are unavoidable events. They can cause disastrous problems to operations. In this study, we aim to reduce the bad effects resulting from these faults in order to raise the operation performance. Fuzzy petri nets (FPN) are very important tools used to diagnose and prognosis issues. However, they take constant certainty factors (CFs) and depend upon long-term statistical average values to describe initial places. A new method is introduced here to determine CFs and initial truth degrees in FPN, so they can reflect different operating states and adapt to any changes in conditions in order to improve the prognosis. For this purpose, we define new kinds of CFs in order to take various conditions into account and represent a wide range of their effects on the system. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the system operation at different states under different conditions to determine the state that may cause problems, and take convenient procedures to prevent them. The proposed method is applied on a reliability test system to show its ability to make the FPN model more flexible and cover a wide range of operation cases.
- power systems,
- diagnosis,
- prognosis,
- FPN
Citation: R. S. Solaiman, T. G. Kherbek, A. S. Ahmad. Defining a new method to set certainty factors to improve power systems prognosis with fuzzy petri nets[J]. AIMS Energy, 2020, 8(4): 686-700. doi: 10.3934/energy.2020.4.686

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Abstract

In power systems, faults are unavoidable events. They can cause disastrous problems to operations. In this study, we aim to reduce the bad effects resulting from these faults in order to raise the operation performance. Fuzzy petri nets (FPN) are very important tools used to diagnose and prognosis issues. However, they take constant certainty factors (CFs) and depend upon long-term statistical average values to describe initial places. A new method is introduced here to determine CFs and initial truth degrees in FPN, so they can reflect different operating states and adapt to any changes in conditions in order to improve the prognosis. For this purpose, we define new kinds of CFs in order to take various conditions into account and represent a wide range of their effects on the system. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the system operation at different states under different conditions to determine the state that may cause problems, and take convenient procedures to prevent them. The proposed method is applied on a reliability test system to show its ability to make the FPN model more flexible and cover a wide range of operation cases.

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